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WORLD CUP 2026CALL BSTHE SCOREBOARDTHE DATACountdown to accountability
AI/TECH“10:1 bet that AI won't accomplish AGI tasks by 2027”59%YR|AI/TECH“AI broadly better than all humans at almost all things by 2027”58%YR|AI/TECH“We are now confident we know how to build AGI”51%YR|ECONOMY“US-China tariff truce expires November 10”60%YR|6d LEFTPOLITICS“2-week ceasefire will resolve the Iran crisis”56%YR|ECONOMY“Tariffs will bring prices down for American families”82%YR|SPORTS“Both NZ and Australia will finish 2nd in their World Cup groups”58%YR|POLITICS“Luxon will win the 2026 NZ election”53%YR|ECONOMY“Section 122 tariffs expire (150-day legal limit)”73%YR|AI/TECH“80% of enterprises will deploy generative AI by 2026”62%YR|POLITICS“DOGE will save $2 trillion in government spending”83%YR|AI/TECH“AI will displace 85 million jobs by 2026”85%YR|ECONOMY“The economic recovery is up and running”67%YR|POLITICS“Labour will win the 2026 NZ election”69%YR|ECONOMY“KiwiSaver contributions to match Australia's 12%”72%YR|ECONOMY“The US economy will be the strongest it has ever been”76%YR|ECONOMY“NZ fuel reserves crisis will be resolved without disruption”72%YR|SPORTS“England will beat Ghana”46%YR|AI/TECH“AGI probably three to five years away”63%YR|AI/TECH“Neuralink will have multiple human patients by end of 2026”67%YR|AI/TECH“10:1 bet that AI won't accomplish AGI tasks by 2027”59%YR|AI/TECH“AI broadly better than all humans at almost all things by 2027”58%YR|AI/TECH“We are now confident we know how to build AGI”51%YR|ECONOMY“US-China tariff truce expires November 10”60%YR|6d LEFTPOLITICS“2-week ceasefire will resolve the Iran crisis”56%YR|ECONOMY“Tariffs will bring prices down for American families”82%YR|SPORTS“Both NZ and Australia will finish 2nd in their World Cup groups”58%YR|POLITICS“Luxon will win the 2026 NZ election”53%YR|ECONOMY“Section 122 tariffs expire (150-day legal limit)”73%YR|AI/TECH“80% of enterprises will deploy generative AI by 2026”62%YR|POLITICS“DOGE will save $2 trillion in government spending”83%YR|AI/TECH“AI will displace 85 million jobs by 2026”85%YR|ECONOMY“The economic recovery is up and running”67%YR|POLITICS“Labour will win the 2026 NZ election”69%YR|ECONOMY“KiwiSaver contributions to match Australia's 12%”72%YR|ECONOMY“The US economy will be the strongest it has ever been”76%YR|ECONOMY“NZ fuel reserves crisis will be resolved without disruption”72%YR|SPORTS“England will beat Ghana”46%YR|AI/TECH“AGI probably three to five years away”63%YR|AI/TECH“Neuralink will have multiple human patients by end of 2026”67%YR|

THE DATA

63% of all bold claims are called BS by the crowd

Based on 7,354 votes across 153 predictions

Updated hourly

ACCURACY BY CATEGORY

CATEGORYCLAIMSRESOLVEDCROWD ACC.AVG. YEAH RIGHT
Sports830—60%
Politics24888%69%
AI/Tech191100%63%
Economy180—64%
Doomsday50—65%
Culture21100%76%
Crypto11100%—
Other10—66%
Sports
Claims: 83
Resolved: 0
Accuracy: —
Avg YR: 60%
Politics
Claims: 24
Resolved: 8
Accuracy: 88%
Avg YR: 69%
AI/Tech
Claims: 19
Resolved: 1
Accuracy: 100%
Avg YR: 63%
Economy
Claims: 18
Resolved: 0
Accuracy: —
Avg YR: 64%
Doomsday
Claims: 5
Resolved: 0
Accuracy: —
Avg YR: 65%

CROWD ACCURACY OVER TIME

Not enough data for chart yet

MOST BELIEVED

“Perth and Brisbane prices will surge 10%+ in 2026”65%

— SQM Research

“Germany will beat Ivory Coast”60%

— World Cup 2026 — Group E

“All Blacks will go unbeaten at home in 2026”55%

— NZ Rugby Fans

“Major tech stock correction in 2026”55%

— Fast Company

“England will beat Ghana”54%

— World Cup 2026 — Group L

BIGGEST BS CALLS

“AI will displace 85 million jobs by 2026”

MOST ACCURATE

Donald Trump8 resolved
13%

LEAST ACCURATE

Donald Trump8 resolved
13%
View full scoreboard →
Culture
Claims: 2
Resolved: 1
Accuracy: 100%
Avg YR: 76%
Crypto
Claims: 1
Resolved: 1
Accuracy: 100%
Avg YR: —
Other
Claims: 1
Resolved: 0
Accuracy: —
Avg YR: 66%
85%

— World Economic Forum

“The Singularity by 2045”84%

— Ray Kurzweil

“DOGE will save $2 trillion in government spending”83%

— Elon Musk

“Will Trump Fire Fed Chair Powell by May?”83%

— Donald Trump

“Tariffs will bring prices down for American families”82%

— Donald Trump